Methodology
How the screen works, and what it refuses to claim.
Fairway Engine follows the Enhanced Build Plan v2.0: zone-first Gate 0 screening, progressive location diligence, a field-level inheritance policy, and an evidence taxonomy carried into every export.
Gate ladder
Location resolution and evidence by gate.
| Gate | Location resolution | Input basis and purpose | Owner |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0: Concept screening | Zone only; national fallback allowed | Published regional averages where available, plus visible broader assumptions. Compare concepts and identify whether further work is worthwhile. | Sponsor + analyst |
| 1: Locality validation | ZIP, municipality or county and trade area | Replace suitable regional estimates with local demographics, competition, wages, seasonality and indicative costs. | Market specialist + club operator |
| 2: Site feasibility | Candidate parcel(s) | Test usable land, access, land use, water, infrastructure and design. Add site estimates and supplier or contractor indications. | Civil and land-use team + agronomist |
| 3: Financial review | Selected site and defined scope | Use written quotes, contracts, lender terms and reconciled monthly schedules for professional review; resolve funding and risk conditions. | Finance lead + lender and advisers |
| 4: Sponsor investment decision after independent professional review | Confirmed project | Sponsor decision after independent professional review of current evidence, capital commitments and downside case. The application grants no approval or certification. | Sponsor or investment committee |
Inheritance policy
National fallback → zone benchmark → locality evidence → site evidence → explicit override.
This is an applicability policy, not a quality ranking: stale or mismatched local evidence may be less useful than a current regional benchmark. Each active value records its underlying benchmark, source geography and vintage, units, cohort, evidence class, override reason and reviewer. Replacing an average with a local input exposes the resulting change; a manual number never becomes a verified actual because the gate changed.
Published benchmark
Publisher, source link, publication date, observation period, geography, population or cohort, units and relevant exclusions.
Derived estimate
Underlying cited data plus the exact transformation, calibration, escalation and timing assumptions. Labelled separately from the source figure.
Illustrative assumption
An unverified preset, stated as such, editable, and never attached to a nearby source as if it were supported.
User input (unverified)
Identified as user supplied. Entry of a value or ZIP code does not constitute verification.
Verified project evidence
Document, date, scope, reviewer and limitations identified. A quote or reviewed fact is not a guarantee of future results.
Missing evidence
Shown as unresolved or not assessed. No zero, no gate badge and no invented citation substitutes for it.
Screening release conventions
What the calculator computes today.
These are the conventions of the annual screening release (model 1.3). The enhanced build replaces them with a dated monthly engine; see the Scope and Limitations page for what is not modeled.
- Timing
- Annual periods: build years followed by twelve operating years. Opening members pay a full year; later admissions and resignations are counted at midyear.
- Maintenance
- Opening-year maintenance = source-year regional budget × optional private-club calibration × (1 + assumed annual escalation) ^ (years from the source year to opening), rounded to the nearest $1,000. Editing the value creates a manual override that survives zone and tier changes until "Use zone estimate" restores inheritance.
- Construction debt
- Draws follow equal annual capital spending. Construction interest is cash-paid on the average drawn balance. Amortization starts at opening; payments stop at payoff. No financing fees, interest reserve, balloon or refinance is modeled.
- Membership
- Ending members = beginning + admissions − resignations, capped by category capacity. Refunds use each admission cohort's original fee with pro rata exits. Refundable receipts and capital dues stay in restricted reserves and never fund operations, debt service or investor recovery.
- Lot sales
- Preset lot sales start in the opening year. A start inside the build period is a presale assumption: it is flagged, and the peak funding deficit without pre-opening sales is shown alongside. Infrastructure cost is charged at sale.
- Indicators
- First positive operating year; first year operating result covers scheduled debt service; peak net equity funding deficit; first cumulative equity cash recovery with the remaining debt and refund liability at that year; cash after debt service including one-time initiation and lot receipts, labelled as such.
- Not modeled
- Taxes, lifecycle capex, working capital, financing fees, refinancing, terminal value and investor distributions. Resort rounds and lodging start at the entered level with no ramp or seasonality.
Public sources
Benchmarks and context the screen cites.
Dated public sources used as benchmarks or context. A value inside a published range earns no verification status, and a historical survey is not a current local bid.
- GCSAA, 2024 Maintenance Budget Survey
Regional and national 18-hole maintenance budgets, including labor and excluding capital. Historical reference, not a local quote.
- NGF, Golf's State-of-Industry in 3 Minutes (January 30, 2026)
National participation context, not evidence of local club demand.
- NGF, August 2026 National Rounds Played (September 25, 2026)
National rounds trend; local seasonality and demand still need evidence.
- NGF, U.S. Golf Course Development Mid-Year Update (July 31, 2026)
Development pipeline concentration; it does not identify the best location.
- GGA Partners / CMAA, Club Leader's Perspective 2024
2024 respondent survey of initiation fees and planned dues increases, labelled by cohort and year.
- Club Benchmarking, 2025 Food and Beverage Whitepaper
F&B subsidy as a share of dues by cohort; the universal range is replaced by cohort comparisons.
- ASGCA, Market Demand and Feasibility
Golf and real estate are evaluated separately before consolidation.
- 13 CFR 120.110(i)
Private clubs and businesses limiting membership for reasons other than capacity are ineligible for SBA business loans; no SBA assumption is built in.
Later gates draw on U.S. Census ACS, NOAA climate normals, BLS occupational wages, the USFWS Wetlands Mapper, FEMA flood maps, the NRCS Web Soil Survey, and project-specific quotes and contracts. Start with the calculator, then request a Gate 1 review.